There are a lot of interesting things about the ongoing turmoil in Iran.
Firstly, it is amazing to see that whether you are French, Czech, Hungarian, Portuguese, Spanish, Iranian, Russian or Chinese, it does not matter. Everybody wants to have money, live confortably, and anything can trigger unrest. We do not want to be literate or numerate. We don't naturally crave for philosophy or politics. We want to live fairly happily and hopefully for as long as we can. Skills are only useful as a means to an end. Double digit inflation is not hyperinflation, but it still stinks! Lagging economic growth is not just a measure of some abstract concept and mathematical creation. It is indeed a useful tool to measure welbeing.
Secondly it is moving to see the lengths to which Iranians are willing to go to express their discontent. I wasn't there, but I dont remmember chinese citizens charging against the police. Check the Huffington Post.
Who are the Veto players?
Khamenei The Supreme Leader), the council of the wise men, the Revolutionary Guard and the Police. Also at this stage the opposition leader, given the amount of informal support also seems to have become a veto player. Informally, I suppose one may consider the parliament (though lightly so), but more importantly, (Urban) the merchants from the bazars, the middle class educated students, the university professors, and (Rural) the poor, and the uneducated, and the religious establishment.
What is the political system like? Centralised or decentralised? Likely the first... not sure
What about the welfare state? I would suppose that health care is provided by the state, in a rather poor manner, given corruption, and the toll taken on the budget by international sanctions. Pensions outside the public sector must be fairly inexistent. The same must apply to unemployment benefits. Education however seems to be rather good, from what I hear. That seems to be one of the reasons ppl go on the streets. They have all these skills and nobody lets them use them for anything, because the elite care little about the economy.
Fourthly it has to do with the nature and the organisation of the protests.
Reza Aslan on the daily show, with Jon Stewart proposed that both sides (Ahmadinejah and Mousavi) know how to dance this tango, because they were the ones dancing it during the Islamic Revolution. The idea is that this is kind of the same as what happened then, but now the players know what's goind on, where as then they were feeling the field. Aslan proposes that the protestors are going to alternate between taking to the streets and mourning for their deads, like they did in the past. And that in each period of mourning they organise better. It will be interesting to see whether this is the case. Either way, for our short term attention span western society it will probably take too long.
Fifthly, there are signs that some of the religious leaders in the council are trying to remove Khamenei. I cant come accross his name... anyway, 3 things seem possible.
- Either they remove Khamenei
- Either there's a Tienamen like bloodbath
- Or there's a government of unity
1 Seems unlikely, unless Mousavi is able to get the support of the army and the other religious clerics or that the opposition organises into militias that can fight at first the basij and then the police. For this they need guns, which unless they take them from the police, it seems unlikely that it will work. 3 seems unpractical as the interests of Mousavi and Ahmadinejah may not intersect. Then again it is possible that they do and that Mousavi is just leveraging a return to politics. Its hard to tell, though he seems too arty and sophisticated for Ahmadinejah's rhetoric and brutish style. The only thing stopping 2 from happening is the fact that the opposition may be too large. If they go in with tanks it may lead to a face off which could lead the army to join the ranks of the protestors and that the ball game. What if instead of one guy sanding up to a tank, 1 million or a counple of thousands do at once and peacefully? From what I hear, Iran did something similar to that during the revolution, putting flowers in the canon of guns.
So in conclusion: 1 is logistically impossible, due to the lack of guns. It is also difficult due to the existence of the revolutionary guard. However, if the system does not change too much and they are left with their percs it is possible to get to that. A changing flied bu similar crap kind of scenario. The worst case however, would involve the army breaking ranks with the clerics or breaking up into opposing camps some of which might oppose the revolutionary guard and the rest of the army which has not changed allegiances.
2 could actually serve as a catalist for the fall of the regime. This would depend on the determination of the iranian ppl and on the number of times the military are willing to go in and kill ppl.
3 is no good because a unity government without unity or at least equality does not work. Mugabe and Tsvangirai taught us that.
Lastly, and on a lighter note, this has been a rather voyeuristic experience for me. The access to information and footage is just unbelievable. There's more now, without a large press presence, then ever before. I guess the opportunity cost of not sending the press has become really too high with youtube, and "viewer"(more like citizens) generated content. Also, media truly is changing. It seems like it is turning into more of a comentary than a matter of obtaining facts. This is not good, because the press then retrenches itself in a subjective field, and distances itself even more from factual reporting. Also, it's lazy! There's something to be said about the reporter having been present in the midst of the events. "...and now just posted on youtube, in what seems to be a large street, we have a large number of individuals, screaming loudly at what seems to be the police, for some important reason." Where is it? why is it there? What moves the ppl protesting? is it just a bandwagon effect. Are they behaving like a herd? or do they identify some cause for the existing malaise which they must voice. Is it the election? the economy? the lack of freedom?
...
Oh and is the rest of the region saying?
BTW: The media was already tiring of covering the protests. Now that Michael Jackson died, I wonder whether the coverage is not going to disappear altogether. After all it's not like there are that many journalists in the field...
