Wednesday 13 October 2010

Signalling a restructuring of Greek debt?

I mentioned back on sunday, that there had been some chatter from a ECB executive about the IMF extending the deadline for Greek debt payments.
Apparently this was followed by similar comments by the IMF's director DSK as well as by comments from the Greek finance minister, to the same effect. Now the European Commission and Germany are denying or opposing this.
What's to be made of all this back and forth?
A Greek economist says that this public discussion is actually the subtle way that these institutions found to start talking about restructuring in veiled terms. This is because it is becoming an accepted fact that this will be inevitable.
But what would be the consequences if this happened? If depreciation is not necessary, the consequences shouldn't be very bad. Greece would be shut out of the Market for a while before it returned at high coupons at least for a while.
However it is likely that depreciation would have played an important role, at least as a motor of economic growth, and in consequence of increase government revenues, which should lead to lower interests on Greek sovereign debt. So, the most accurate thing is to say we don't really know what would happen. That's not a very reassuring place to start from, if you ask me...


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