The Lisbon treaty is an annoying little monster which may be messing around the normal path of domestic politics... This is the case in the Czech Republic, Poland, Ireland and the UK. In the latter, this may be particularly strong. I'm not sure about this and it is only a hunch. However, if only on the surface of it, the story takes turns which seem to plot to make me believe I am right. Here's what we know:
If Gordon Brown had called an election just around the time he came to power, he would have probably won it. At least so everyone said in the summer of 2007. Certainly he would have had a better shot at it than what it seems he will in june 2010. He was deemed as politically unable for not having done so. I really ought to know more about British politics, but I think that the Lisbon treaty might have had something to do with it. Could it have been that Brown feared having to address the issue during the election and that that would have exposed the issue and made it more salient raising even more problems for the EU? Could it have been the looming financial crisis which kept on growing? Could it have been the bad polls? its hard to say... It also hard to understand why no one has yet made a decent leadership challenge. Really Brown is a fairly lame duck prime minister. Many things would change if the Tories came to power, though may be not as many as people would want to. Anyway, may be I am not cynical enough, but one thing I do suspect would happen would be a referendum on the Lisbon treaty, which if the media and the last European elections are at all representative would result in the reversal of the British position on the Treaty. This would make a mess for everybody. Who is holding the boat for labour? I believe it is Peter Mandelson, who was a EU trade commissioner and is just about the only person aside from Miliband with a decent knowledge of politics and of the influence of the EU, and most, likely no significant ambition for the premiership. Could he be protecting Brown in order to protect the EU treaty, or could I have the causation all wrong, and despite rivalries, he is protecting Brown in order to aid himself and as a result that protects the EU treaty. Its difficult to untangle these causalities, but the matter of the fact is that at this stage the UK is an extremely important player.
Nonetheless, I must say that if Ireland rejects the Lisbon Treaty for a second time there really isn’t any precedent to throw around. Normally countries and treaties get a second chance, but not a third. It is either unnecessary (because their vote does not stop others from moving forward: Norway, Sweden, Denmark) or undesired (because national politicians refuse to call a second referendum: France potentially the Netherlands too). There's never been talk of a third referendum. Not even now. The idea is that Ireland will pass the referendum. There is no plan B.
So now we know when Ireland will hold its second referendum: 2 October 2009. In the most optimistic of scenarios, Ireland approves the treaty, the Czechs and the Poles deposit their treaties in Rome sometime before the British election is held and then no one cares any longer about what happens to Gordon Brown. But what if either or all of these 3 things happen:
1)What if the Poles decide to delay the deposition of the treaty?
2) What if the Czechs decide to delay the deposition of the treaty?
3) What if after the treaty is passed in Ireland, the House of Commons withdraws support from Brown and the election does not happen in June 2010, but in January? What if everyone else does everything right, but Brown is kicked out too early?
If any of these things happen, on retourne à la case zero as the French say...And here is where it gets interesting. Imagine that either one of these countries fails to ratify the treaty and effective puts an end to the process, with 5 years waisted in meetings, votes and referenda and no advancement made... Can you imagine the backlash? Whoever makes a mess out of this won't get a thing from the other countries, particularly from France. the one who has a better chance is Ireland, but still there, if the treaty fail, Sarkozy is going to beat the Taioseach into a gruesome rotten peach for not campaigning better. It won't be pretty. If it's one of the two Eastern European countries, they will be so heavily pounded they will be sorry for joining the EU... The same applies for England who might actually decide to do that, under Cameron.
So what happens then? European academics like to say that countries join because of each other. The UK joined because the EEC(read France and Germany) was growing faster. This made Ireland and Denmark join too, because they were heavily dependent on the UK for trade. This coupled with the fall of the Soviet Union also incentivised the rest of Scandinavia to join in. Would Denmark and Ireland leave if the UK left and become simple members of EEA, like Switzerland and Norway? Would Sweden and Finland also leave?
que sera sera
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