Friday 12 March 2010

EMF, German economy and EU procurement reform

In the following article, Tony barber of the FT asks Two questions. First, whether it is possible for Germany to

: 1) "no longer to be, in the broadest sense of the term, the EU’s paymaster", 2) "impose strict budget deficits in the Eurozone" 3)"remain the EU’s champion exporter and a model of business competitiveness, piling up vast current surpluses as a result"

and secondly, whether this is compatible with European (Economic, I assume) Stability.

Regarding the first question, I believe that this is a coherently proposed set of goals. Again, I go back to the basic open economics: Y=C+I+G+NX, and Y=C+S+T implies that I-S + X-M = T-G. Therefore it is not just possible, but in the absence of a short term disequilibrium between Investment and Savings, if Germany wants to be a big exporter it needs to have a low deficit. What better way to do that than to stop being the EU "paymaster". But is it really the pay master?

Now, the second question is much more tricky. As I said, I'm assuming that he is referring to economic stability. Now the thing one needs to keep in mind is the EU's procurement system. At the moment EU revenue has 4 main sources: VAT, customs and agricultural duties and direct country contributions, based on some GNP proportionality formula. Then there are some other smaller adhoc contributions, but nothing more tha 5-10%. This means that whoever consumes more, whoever participates in more external trade, and whoever has the largest GNP, will always be the EU's paymaster. So Germany is stuck. Even if the EU was to levy some income tax, it would still be germans paying the largest piece of the cake.

Ultimately the point is still that the whole story is a bit inflated. There is no problem with Germany not wanting to pay for greek debt. Moreover, just because it decides that the idea of a EMF is good because it spreads the monetary cost of rescue to everyone, it does not mean that suddenly Germany wants to decrease the bill it pays. I guess it only means it does not want it to increase! Germany is the biggest payer of EU but it is not the majority. It's not worth making a fuss

No comments:

Post a Comment