Monday 15 November 2010

Survival of the fittest political economies through natural selection

I believe that in more ways than one international integration is a process akin to evolution. As they are faced with a shock, our fragmented political economies must adapt to the changed environment in which they dwell. Of course this does not proceed immediately. Adaptation is an uncomfortable process, that takes time and luck as Jared Diamond so clearly illustrates in Collapse.
Not all crises have known solutions and as such it is impossible to know whether or what reforms will work. The best we can do in such cases is to recognise that the status quo is no longer viable and that we need a change. This, in and of itself is an achievement, and the first necessary condition to move in the right direction.
What that change ends up looking like will be a function of the forces at play (veto players and collective action problems), and success is not guaranteed. Moreover, luck is a factor because we cannot exclude the possibility of making type one or type two errors. Finally, we may not have the luxury of time and slow learners may be penalised.

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