Showing posts with label Africa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Africa. Show all posts

Saturday, 18 July 2009

Reconstruction, Transition and all that mess

The period of the USA's history known as reconstruction (fairly decent review of it in Wikipedia and a rather thorough introduction to it in Yale Open University Lecture Series)is extremely interesting and should probably be put into a discipline of its own, together with, the Japanese Meiji Era, the handling and the consequences of the great war, the Armenian Genocide, the German, Italian and Japanese reconstructions after WWII, transition from communism to capitalism in Eastern Europe (CEEC - Central and Eastern European Countries and Russia's Glasnost and Perestroika), post 1979 Communist China opening to the world, post-Franco Spain, the aftermath of recent post WWII genocides and atrocities and other civil wars in Africa (Sierra Leone, Rwanda, Liberia Somalia, Eritrea, Congo, etc), Southeast Asia (mainly Cambodia and its infamous Khmer Rouge), the Balkans and the transition from military or otherwise fascist looking and sounding régimes in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil and Chile come to mind, but I'm sure there are others). It's possible that I'm being unfair by leaving out Oceania, but it seems that these were rather uncontested situations, where the majority crushed the minority and there was no reconstruction, only annihilation. There was no contest.

One thing that becomes quite evident from the reconstruction period in the USA is the problem associated with the concepts of formal and informal rules, as described by North here (for almost all he ever wrote see here and here), that in order for rules to be credible, they need to enjoy enforcement credibility, which can only be guaranteed by a synchronicity between formal laws passed by legislations and informal rules predominantly present in social conventions, or what he refers as the mental models which help us understand the world. I thought at first that it might have been possible to support ungrounded (in public support) legislation through coercion or incentivizing side payments (North does not actually mention these two), but I guess that in such circumstances no one is determined enough to enforce the first and the side payments are not sufficiently large to be effective.

[On a side note, if anybody has ever read the biography of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, it may become apparent that he was acutely aware of this problem as he always feared to be ahead of public opinion, which caused his delay in entering in WWII )].

This is a big field, which is concerned with understanding the transition from instability to more calm states of nature. In this specific context my interest is larger. It encompasses not mere economic and political instability but also institutional instability as well as the possibility of economic, political, social and institutional stability as the means to achieve North's adaptively efficient economy/society. In this specific case I am very interested in the transaction costs specific to war as well as general economic, political and social strife. I am interested in how societies change their minds or fail to change their minds, and how they move on and deal with prior opposition. How did the unionists deal with the confederalists? How did the Tutsis deal with the Hutus? How did the allies deal with the Germans? How did moderate Germans deal with Nazis and the previous generation? How did Cambodians deal with the Khmer Rouges? How did moderate Spanish deal with the phalangists? How did capitalist Eastern Europeans, Chinese and Russians deal with their communist counter parts (and by the way, vice versa should also be interesting to know)? and more importantly, to which extent did this process of national healing or lack thereof affect economic performance and social and political stability?

Anyway, one thing seems certain, reconstruction failed, and depending on your view of the American Civil war (my apologies to Latin American sensibilities), it probably hindered the unionist war efforts. Now the interesting thing is to understand where and when it failed, and what about the USA made this possible, and whether this was inevitable.

I've got to finish this dissertation so I can get down and do some reading...

In the mean time, here's an interesting look at contemporary KKK. The little subtitles are at least as interesting as the photos.

Friday, 3 July 2009

Economic Development and Political Stability: Africa Vs South East Asia

Why is Africa less developed than South East Asia?
Because it is less stable? (remmember both were colonies)
Fair enough, but why is South East Asia more stable?
Aha! That's where the crumbling of the cookie gets interesting...
Here's some food for thought:
Because ethnic tensions were stonger in a Africa as a result of the more artificial division of borders. By the way, South East Asia was pretty unstable in the early years of independence... China, Laos, Cambodja and Vietnam went at it pretty hard. There's always Myanmar (or Burma... how did that name change happen anyway?) and I don't know how developped these countries are. Hum...
Ok it seems I'm stuck in the typical Social Sciences conandrum... I'm stuck with more questions than answers and it's likely that my question might simply be fallacious and based on a wrong assumption. "Scientific methodology... Ah, What a pain you are!"
So ok... I guess that now I need to check if my basic assumption is correct and focus the analysis.
New question: "Is Africa more or less economically developed than South East Asia? , and if so why?"
Not that it wouldn't be interesting to check whether it is more or less legally, politically or socially developped, but one must start somewhere...
This should make my life easy. I pick a number of economic variables and then look at their determinants and understand what caused the differences in values between Africa and South East Asia.
Potential Variables:
  1. GDP and its growth (Capital stock and its growth, Size of labour force and its growth, depreciation of capital stock and its growth and their productivity, for a Solow growth approach to the issue; or initial GDP, social and political stability measured as number of murders, terms of trade, and human capital for a New [ie endogenous] growth theory approach à la Barro; finally for just the GDP I may wanna compare the accounting variables: Y=C+I+G+X-M)
  2. GDP per capita and its growth
  3. Gini Index (for some idea of the income inequality) and its growth
  4. Inflation and its growth
  5. Unemployment and its growth
so I guess I'll have to look into it...
By the way, I should mention this all started because someone told me they had studied many things during their master's, one of which had been conflict resolution. The question seemed relevant at the time, but I feel like I'm not really running towards it... It seems as though the issue started as one of political stability and now, by refocusing the question I've completely removed it from its original purpose... Oh well! What are you gonna do?
But the original question is still relevant and probably easier to assess... "Is South East Asia more politically stable than Africa? If so why?"
Political stability
  1. number wars in a certain period of time
  2. number of governments in a certain period of time
  3. level of control/authority projected by the government throughout its geographical jurisdiction
  4. number of politically motivated aggressions (from the simple vandalism to political assassinations)
Causes
  1. Heterogeneity of population (this kind of fits into the Cleavage structure)
  2. Lack of functional institutions to mediate conflicts and legitimise decisions from the majority This is a huge heading: incorporates the recognition of specialization and sphere of influence of one institution by all the others (Executive, Legislative, Judicial, Military, Police, Central Bank), has to do with number of veto players (Horizontal executive power sharing through the electoral system and cleavage structure and vertical executive power sharing presidential vs parliamentarian and federal vs unitary), possibility of exit and of exercising voice, legitimation (input or output) processes,
  3. External interference
  4. Geography and the geographical organisation of resources/capital (physical and human)
Fortunately I don't have a dissertation to write...